0693 - MoreBad

It hasn't been a cheery week, either on not-so-tranquil Anguilla, or in all-but-collapsed Iraq, or in Washington, where the utterly stubborn President and the not-so-smart Democrats are staring each other down. The news from Anguilla is more crime, and now a batch of fake US$100 bills circulating. [Grocery stores here refuse the big bills.] Iraq seems to be broken, with the "Progress" of the surge amounting to as many as 180 Iraqis a day blown up on the street. And then, in DC, the Dems have, stupidly, passed a military funding bill which includes a spinach and a dairy subsidy, along with a timetable for departing Iraq. The President, whose old pals are under withering fire from all compass points, say he will veto the bill and then attack the Dems for not supporting the troops, as if it supports the troops to get them killed by various Iraqi crazies. The question in the U.S. is: don't we deserve better from our Government?

The same question is being asked in usually tranquil Anguilla, both by the locals ("Belongers") whose homes are being regularly invaded by armed hoodlums, and by the Expats, who are similarly under attack. The similarities with Iraq are striking, at least to our Staff. In Iraq, it is clear that the varied sects know who is making bombs and blowing themselves up, but the reasonable people who aren't blowing themselves up are terrified to tell on the crazed killers – because they are scared of retribution. Similarly, on Anguilla, which isn't so big (say 15,000 or so permanent residents), although there are certainly citizens who know who is robbing and pillaging, there is a long-established code of not telling. This "No Snitch" code is well known in the gang neighborhoods of the U.S., though it isn't quite for the same reasons. The police here are not very efficient, perhaps, but they don't have a long history of beating up those they arrest, nor is there any hint of racism. But now, as the hoods are breaking into Anguillian homes, everybody is upset. The British, who – supposedly – control the police, will not hear of our brilliant idea of homeowner Taser licensing, because Tasers are forbidden in the U.K., nor are there any signs of any better plan.

Turning to Washington, the face-off brings no credit to the GOPs or the Dems. The Iraq mess seems destined to destroy the Republicans at the next election, unless the Dems find some way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. For those who rely on our Staff for political predictions, we'll tell you what is going to happen in the Iraq funding stand-off. After the Prez vetoes the current appropriation bill, the Dems will find a way to pass a bill that will run the invasion until September, with no insistence on a timetable for withdrawal. Why September? Because that is when the General in charge says he will see if his surge is working. The Dems will fund until then because otherwise they will be attacked for not listening to the Generals (as if that is always a good idea). Iraq, we predict – and will bet– will still be a mess in September. What is more, the so-called "Government" of Iraq will be either collapsed or still more incompetent to act. By then, there will be some signs of bipartisan disgust with the Iraq venture. Remember Vietnam?

And speaking of Vietnam, you may know that the OO was the author of a 1973 book called The Institutional Imperative, which lays down the laws of behavior for any institution of any size. The laws apply to Governments large or small, and to corporations, and to all other bureaucracies. The book is about to be re-published, with examples of the working of the laws in current times. Reading over the chapter on the Vietnam fiasco, it is amazing how applicable the laws are to the Iraq disaster. Watch this space for notice of availability of a CD of the original book, when you can access the immutable laws of bureaucracy, and understand why things don't work right, anywhere.

Next time: PoliticoSex [OO #694]

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